I Remember

Posted in Life in the Country on 16, April 2018 by nathanbusch

Whilst drafting a note, I read a word that was not mine.

Then again I looked because I did not understand: Oh! I said to myself.

My old companion Dyslexia had juxtapositioned two letters of the word.

Then remembered did I: whilst home on leave from the Navy at just age 18,

I happened to mention that b and d differed none to me.

Before a second was gone, I was dragged by evil to the blackboard, screamed stupid did it, and lashings from an old 2″ leather belt rained down upon face, shoulders, back, and etc.

Said it: b is forward like the bow of a boat, d is not.

I remember.

Movie night past, the movie was of anger, abuse, and redemption.

I remember the beatings for errors on spelling quizzes

I remember the beatings until death was near for what I cannot remember

I remember the crushed bones

I remember the horror of the bruises showing in school

I remember crying in terror when others were beaten so badly that they fell to the floor unconscious, yet the beating did not stop

I remember a baby brother who was violently torn from a high chair and beaten so badly as to be crippled for life because of a bit of spilt milk

I remember.

Evil.

Hell.

In my bed … after the movie … I cried

because

I remember all after

50 years of working to forget

I know not whether he is dead or alive

nor does my pain care

yet

in my bed … after the movie … I asked G_d

to let me remember how to forgive

him

I Can Only Imagine

n

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Which of Us is the Sinnner?

Posted in Observations during Life on 10, April 2018 by nathanbusch

I say that I do not accept the teachings of your religion and I say that I do not accept your interpretation of what, or who, is G_d.

You judge me and say that I am a “sinner” for taking my position and that I will be cast into the Lake of Hell Fire and Damnation to suffer pain and agony, the intensity of which is beyond my ability to comprehend, for all eternity. You say that you will say “goodbye” as you fly by on your way to Heaven.

I ask: according to your religion, which one of us is the “sinner”?

I hope that this helps.

Nathan A. Busch

[20180327]

Posted in Observations during Life on 28, March 2018 by nathanbusch

Just because something is, does not mean that it must be.

If you do not like that “something”, then change your life such that it no longer exists. You have the power to do so.

I hope that this helps.

Nathan A. Busch

Traitor Trump

Posted in Life in the Country on 18, February 2018 by nathanbusch

The evidence is indisputable that Russia manipulated the 2016 Election in the United States.

The only thing that Traitor Trump has said was that he won the election: therefore he is not going to bother his precious head about the Russian attack.

And one third of the voters in this country still support the lying Traitor Trump!

The Russians attacked the United States with the intent of destroying our country and Traitor Trump and his reprehensible supporters think that they should support Russia in its war against the United States? Incidentally, The Donald never joined the military to protect this country during the Viet Nam War because he got his college deferment and a rich daddy who kept him safely on American Territory whilst he spat on the very soldiers who went and fought for his right to bloviate about how wonderful is Murderous Putin.

It is time for patriotic Americans to standup to the Trumpies and eject them out of our country!

I hope that this helps.

Nathan A. Busch

P.S. Dan, you were correct: I need not use profanity.

The Morons at the Highway Department

Posted in Observations during Life on 23, January 2018 by nathanbusch

Interstate Highway 394 is the major traffic artery between downtown Minneapolis and the western suburbs.

Today, Minnesota had a major blizzard: lots of wet snow and very high winds.

The traffic was all but stopped throughout the Twin Cities: accidents were everywhere.

Not one single snow plow was to be seen anywhere!

Not one single grain of salt was applied to either Highway 394 or anywhere else!

Oh, but wait: in a few days, the sun will have melted all of the ice and snow from the roads.

Then, the snowplows will be out plowing bone-dry pavement and applying thousands of tons of salt.

And this makes sense to whom?

Morons!!!

I hope that this helps.

Nathan A. Busch

Timing the Stock Market

Posted in Observations during Life on 10, January 2018 by nathanbusch

Many believe their own “analysis” or the “analysis” of market experts that the stock market is over valued and they must wait until the market crashes and then buy like drunken sailors.

Like my skill at BlackJack, I managed to time the market correctly for about a year many years ago: then, I quit doing both because I figured that my luck was about to run out.

Then I read Phillip Fisher “Common Stocks, Uncommon Profits” twice, Warren Buffet “Essays of Warren Buffet”, Benjamin Graham “The Intelligent Investor” five times, Graham and Dodd “Securities Analysis” twice; O’Shaughnessy “What Works on Wall Street” thrice, the Financial Times daily, the Wall Street Journal daily, The New York Times daily, the Economist, and Barrons weekly.

Now, I am wise enough to know that I know nothing at all except the following: emotions are lethal in the investing world.

It appears that the “market timers” all suffer from a single problem: which is that they are so fearful of any downdraft that they are forced to believe their own “analysis”. I would suggest that they are wrong on both counts.

I hope that this helps.

Nathan A. Busch

Regarding Rebalancing a Portfolio

Posted in Investing on 10, January 2018 by nathanbusch

A client recently asked me the following set of questions:

Most stock screens typically have a high turnover of Ticker Symbols and are advertised using monthly rebalancing or updating: would annual rebalancing of the portfolio give better returns?

Also, it seems that monthly rebalancing of a portfolio necessarily increases costs of transaction, slippage and taxes. Therefore, how can the monthly rebalancing add sufficient value to a Portfolio given the inherent shortcomings.

Is there any way to obtain results of a portfolio managed according to yearly rebalanced as opposed to monthly rebalancing?

My response is as follows:

As to your question about backtesting to obtain the results of annual rebalancing: my question is why would you want to use annual “rebalancing”; do you have especial information that a portfolio that is rebalanced on an annual basis will out perform a portfolio that uses the same screen but is “rebalanced” on a monthly basis. If you have such information, then you are set to go. If you have no such information and you are relying upon a rule that some academic researcher or Wall Street guru establish, then you are in for some very poor sailing.

As to costs of transaction: if you use a large bank or brokerage house, you are lucky if your transaction costs will be any less than 111 basis points plus $45.00 per trade, and that is for each of the buy and sell. If each of your transactions is, say, $1000.00, I guarantee that you will lose money if you rebalance on a monthly basis and it is highly likely that your portfolio will suffer severely even if you “rebalance” on an annual basis. Of course, your portfolio will, most likely, suffer severely if you “rebalance” on an annual basis because it is highly likely that the average annual return on the stocks that enter the Passing List of any given stock screen will be much smaller than the average annualized return of the portfolio if you “rebalance” on a monthly basis. Use an online discount brokerage house: their transaction costs are so cheap as to be negligible.

As to slippage: this is pure nonsense. Understand the behaviour of the market in which you intend to operate and use limit stops.

As to taxes: this is also pure nonsense and an absurdity. Use tax sheltered or tax deferred accounts. You will be best if you use a Roth IRA.

To help you understand a bit better as to how to use the screens: let us consider the EPS Est., Rev. Up 5% Stock Screen. Typically, this stock screen produces, on average, about 40 ticker symbols per week. Consider further promoting the set of ticker symbols, which enter the Passing List on a given week, to the Portfolio and holding that set for a set time and then selling. Do that each week. Now, I know by now that you are screaming that I am completely off my rocker. I ask that you bear with me a bit.

Of course, for any given stock screen, it is highly probable that a single Ticker Symbol will enter the passing list over the course of several weeks. It would be absurd to purchase that Ticker Symbol and then purchase that Ticker Symbol a week later, & etc. The solution to this is to cull all repeat ticker symbols during a window of time before the week of interest. I use a 28 day look back period. That immediately eliminates about two-thirds of the ticker symbols that enter the passing list each week.

Then, screen the remaining one-third of the ticker symbols that enter the Passing List each week using one or more items of fundamental financial information or derivative information therefrom. I actually use a derivative of approximately 42 individual items of fundamental financial information each of which is averaged over the previous eight years. By this “buy rule”, I am able to decrease the average number of ticker symbols purchased each week to 2.06 between the beginning of January 2016 and 5th January 2018.

Then, I have an algorithm that maximizes the capital invested in the portfolio at any given point in time. This algorithm is based upon the utility function used by Bernoulli in his solution of the Saint Petersburg Paradox. This step alone approximately doubles the average annualized return of the portfolio.

Now, test to obtain the optimal holding period for the set of ticker symbols that is promoted to the portfolio each week.

The answer for my set of rules as applied to the EPS Est., Rev. Up 5% Stock Screen: buy every week, hold for five weeks and then sell as close to the market closing price as is possible.

My Simulated Portfolio indicates that the average annualized return on the invested capital in the Portfolio is 57% if the set of ticker symbols is held for five weeks and 12% if held for more than 26 weeks. I have been using this method since the beginning of January 2016 and have obtained a return that is within 0.15% of the Simulated Portfolio. And all of these numbers include transaction costs.

As to backtesting: there are some websites that one can use to backtest stock screens. I have found that these are incredibly difficult to program, have long waiting times for execution, and are inordinately expensive. Therefore, develop your own and I suggest that you not try to do so in MicroSoft Excel. Excel is clunky, slow, and underpowered for the computations you will need to properly backtest any stock screen. I currently use 8 macMini computers all running my algorithms in parallel and over ethernet connections. I obtain my items of fundamental financial information from the AAII Stock Investor Professional data base. My computational time for a complete Portfolio Simulation is approximately 8 hours per year of backtesting.

I hope that this helps.

Nathan A. Busch